Social Security Changes Are Unlikely
Washington Policy Research
A lot of headlines are focused on potential changes to Social Security, the solvency of the Social Security Trust Fund, and efforts to root out fraud and waste in the Social Security Administration. However, changes to Social Security are unlikely, as outlined below.
President Trump has said that he will protect Social Security benefits.
While President Trump is focused on eliminating fraud and waste across federal agencies and implementing federal spending cuts, he has stated that he does not want to reduce benefits for Social Security (or Medicare) or to cut staff that would impact the provision of Social Security benefits. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is specifically looking at Social Security payments to individuals over the age of 100, but not all of the individuals meeting that criterion are receiving benefits, and DOGE is expected to only cut benefits for individuals receiving benefits fraudulently. A 2024 Social Security inspector general report found that $71.8 billion in improper payments were made between fiscal years 2015 and 2022, less than 1% payments made in that time period.
The budget reconciliation process cannot be used to make changes to Social Security.
To enact Trump’s legislative agenda, Republicans in Congress will use the budget reconciliation process that allows for legislation to pass with 51 votes (rather than 60) in the Senate. However, that process includes rules that Congress must abide by, and one of those rules is that it cannot be used to make changes to the Social Security program. Therefore, changes to Social Security benefits cannot be included, nor can Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. Although there are a few opportunities for legislation to pass this year via regular order (60 votes in the Senate), such as the fiscal 2025 spending bill and the National Defense Authorization Act, those bills require bipartisan support and will not include cuts to Social Security.
Congress will act before allowing Social Security to become insolvent.
The Social Security Board of Trustees forecasts that the Social Security retirement and disability trust funds will become insolvent in 2035. The Congressional Budget Office projects that insolvency would come a year earlier, in 2034. If that were to happen, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that benefits would be cut by 23% beginning in 2035. Trump’s proposals to end taxes on Social Security benefits, on tips, and on overtime could decrease Social Security Trust Fund revenues (without additional revenue sources as offsets) and accelerate insolvency. However, in 1983, as insolvency loomed and the program faced an inability to pay full benefits, Congress passed legislation to avoid cutting benefits. This included the majority of the recommendations of the Greenspan Commission created in 1981 to improve the financial integrity of the program. We would expect Congress to act again if insolvency becomes imminent.
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