Bull & Baird: Is Now Different?

Sometimes I sit at my desk during market selloffs and ponder an important question: “is now different?”

In front of my 3 monitors, sipping a lukewarm cold brew, I dig into headlines and charts that show what’s happening in the world today.  Is what I’m seeing unusual, worth analyzing, worth communicating to clients? Do I have a grasp on the narrative and can I relate it in an easy-to-understand way?

It’s currently March 2025 and the market is trembling under the weight of a trade war, the prospect of no more rate cuts, high stock market valuations, and an uncertain global and domestic political environment.

So, dear reader, is now different? Has this level of uncertainty and change created a unique event in history? Well, yes and no.

I’ll admit, it is rare to see this much news- and policy-making condensed into such a short timeframe.  Every day I wake up to something new happening… and as I digest that new thing, something else is proposed a few hours later. DOGE cutting a wide swath in government agencies, the White House embracing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, major tone shifts in long-held transatlantic alliances, steep tariffs on our neighbors, and new tax proposals—all while we tick down to a deadline for raising the debt ceiling. Whether all of that is good or bad is a matter of personal opinion but the pace of change is breathtaking, so it does feel different. 

But in many ways what we are seeing is NOT different.

Back in the fall of 2018 we experienced the same headlines.  I’m serious, it was almost identical. If you don’t believe me here’s an article from CNBC on October 31, 2018 where they talk about the Fed being stubborn, Tech stocks falling, and a brewing trade war.

The stock market went on to fall nearly 20% by December before the Federal Reserve pivoted to rate cuts.

Will we see the same reaction in the stock market now as we did back then?  That’s a question I cannot answer because things can shift quickly.  If the Fed switches gears to an easing stance, or if tariffs are removed, the snapback rally could be enormous. 

To be crystal clear: you have no edge trying to trade the news (or “time the market”) whatsoever. None.

Let’s also remind ourselves that the US stock market experiences, on average, three 5% selloffs every single year.  Not only that—we typically get a 10% selloff at some point within every year. 2024 was an incredible year to be an investor, but we had two 5%+ selloffs and nearly had a third. Do you even remember the inciting news behind those selloffs?  I bet you don’t.

If you’ve been following me, or reading my work, or watching All That Matters, you know that I believe the two most important things in investing are your behavior and how much news you consume. So let me give you 3 steps to follow.

Step 1: If watching the news is affecting your investing, then the first move is to walk away for a bit and collect yourself.  Take a day off from news.  Go for long walks. Spend time with loved ones. Try to reduce the noise. 

Step 2: Talk to someone about it. Humans often just need to be heard (and not feel alone) to feel better. 

Step 3: Remind yourself that “the world has always been crazy but that hasn’t stopped me from growing my wealth and making progress toward the goals that matter to me.”  Your plan is, and always will be, the lifeboat in turbulent times.

Is now different?  It always is, so don’t let that consume you.

The information reflected on this is a Baird opinion and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments have some level of risk, and investors have different time horizons, goals and risk tolerances, so speak to your Baird Financial Advisor before taking action.